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Dubai or not Dubai, that is the question |
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News -
FFUC
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Monday, 03 September 2007 00:00 |
The Glazer family have been forced again today to deny reported approaches for the purchase of Manchester United, stating ''The Glazer family are not engaged in any discussion with any prospective bidder and it is not courting bidders for Manchester United."
On the surface that seems an unequivocal denial of any potential sale. However, this is the Glazer family we are talking about, the same bunch who once said 'we have no intention of launching a bid to buy Manchester United', before doing exactly that.
We'll therefore have to look at the wider evidence to assess the truth or otherwise of the alleged approaches from China and Dubai.
As we get no information that we can rely on any more from Old Trafford, all the following has to be speculation, but the weight of evidence may point to a sale being considered after all.
REFINANCING CANCELLED
The calling off of the second debt restructuring, blamed (in public at least) on the instability in interest rates, meant that the debt has not grown.
The first restructure added £62m to the amount owed to the banks, enough in itself to buy many football clubs. By not adding a similar amount by refinancing again, the Glazers have kept the books more attractive to a potential buyer, who will either have to take on the debt, or pay it off.
BUYING ON THE NEVER NEVER
The player purchases made this summer have made some think the Glazers have finally made a net investment in the playing staff, indicating a long term commitment to United, but that is a dangerous conclusion to draw.
While The News of The World seem to think £80m has been spent this summer, Tevez is on loan, and the other deals are more long term structured than has been the case historically. While spreading the price of Nani, Anderson, and Hargreaves over 4 or 5 years might seem prudent financial management, it also keeps this year's balance sheet looking healthier to potential buyers.
The player sales, amounting to nigh on £30m, offset the net cash position to quite possibly neutral in this financial year.
So while to the outside world (including investors) it may seem that the club is so financially healthy it can splash cash, the reality is more complicated, with United still paying for this summers new players in 2 or 3 years, at a time when Gary Neville, Paul Scholes, Ryan Giggs, and Edwin van Der Sar at a minimum will need replacing.
United's financial ability to replace those players may be hampered by the continuing payments for this years purchases, but that will not be relevant to the Glazers if they do not intend to be around then. Neither, should they sell up, will the £30m fee to purchase Tevez that will fall due in 2009. Of all the forwards linked with United over the summer, the club fought to sign the one available on loan. A coincidence?
THE LOSS OF ROSSI
Few of us argued with most of the outward player movement this summer, Richardson not being good enough, Smith a trier but not quite up to it, Heinze a pariah for his desire to join the Mickeys.
The sale of Giuseppe Rossi is a different story. 12 months ago the forward United nurtured for 3 years was offered, and signed, a new 4 year contract, and hailed as 'the future of United'. This summer, with United threadbare in the striker department, he was sold for £6.7m, a baffling decision explained away with 'he wanted first team football'. Strange that we hadn't heard it from the player himself, in fact he had stated his desire to play for United on returning from loan in Italy.
Did the Glazers want the money to brighten the books? Is the mantra that the Glazers don't interfere in team matters just another falsehood? With the injury status of Saha and Solskjaer at the time of sale, the decision to offload a player on a new, long term contract lauded more than any graduate of the reserves in living memory needs a better explanation than 'he wanted first team football' - he would be getting it now.
REAL BIG PRICE RISE, FALSE BIG WAITING LIST
The decision to impose the massive ticket price rise, as well as the Automatic Cup Scheme debacle, was, we understand, taken against advice from within the club. Here was a golden opportunity to improve the Glazer family image by not rising ticket prices, using instead the windfall from the new television deal to boost profits.
But, while the Hicks / Gillette regime at Liverpool, (one of only 2 other teams not to cut or freeze ticket prices this season) seem to have fooled Liverpool fans into thinking they are not just in it for the money, the Glazers don't even pretend any different. So the internal advice was ignored, a 10,000 waiting list was invented, (you can STILL get a season ticket for this season just by ringing up)and up went prices by 14%. More evidence of needing to make the books, and demand, look as healthy as possible?
Debt not restructured, Rossi's sale, the recruitment of Tevez above all other options, price hikes against advice - is this merely a list of suppositions to fit what we want to happen? Possibly - and who could blame us. In truth, only time will tell, and it also remains to be seen how different any new owners would be. One thing is for sure though, they couldn't be more odious or brazen in using our football club as a personal cash cow than the current owners.
Maybe the final hope we can take is the fact that as often as not, what the regime says is the opposite of what happens. Of course, they would hardly release a statement saying 'we'll consider offers'.
Saying 'The Glazers intend to make a bid for United' in 2004/2005 would have inflated the share price even more than their acquisitions were doing, and so they said the opposite. Saying 'we are not courting offers', is designed to make any bid one that cannot be refused. We know enough about the Glazers to realise that there is a level at which they will say yes, and turn their attention to the next money making project.
Perhaps their 'Not for sale' will turn out to be as wide of the mark as ours unfortunately was.
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